Indian farmers might witness yet another night mare as El Nino is readying to breach this monsoon: Nomura report

India may witness another week monsoon due to the formation of El Nino this year according to the report by Nomura. The probability of El Nino formation has led to worries on monsoons which play a crucial role in crop production as major acreage in India is rain-fed.

Another department, Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) stated that the likelihood of El Nino formation in 2017 has risen where 6 out of 7 models surveyed by ABM has weighted the affirmation. The probability of El Nino formation is more than 50% according to ABM.


El Nino is a weather condition where there will be a below normal monsoon which drastically affects the country's agriculture. The last time when the El Nino occurred was in 2015 which led to severe drought in the country but thankfully the diametric effect, La Nino occurred in 2016 which reduced the misery in the country with some good amount of rain.


The analysis was not alway true because, in the last thirty years when El Nino breached during monsoons, there were below-normal monsoons only in 5 instances - 1987, 1991, 2002, 2004, 2015, while on three occasions, there were normal monsoons and in 1994, there was above normal monsoon.

The only factor that determines the drastic condition is the time of formation of El Nino. If it occurs in July when farmers finish their sowing, the condition would be adverse affecting the crop productivity, while El Nino if forms during late August, there would be little or no effect as most of the crops would reach the maturity stage by the time.

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